Forecasters see 50% chance of another deep low near Reykjanes, Iceland

A deep low pressure area could form southwest of the Reykjanes peninsula in Iceland late next week, with at least a 50% probability, according to meteorologist Einar Sveinbjörnsson, as reported by Vísir and mbl.is. Current charts from the ECMWF and AIFS forecasting systems both show a system likely to reach a central pressure of 942 hPa in the area, similar to the record-setting low that passed over Iceland last week.

Einar Sveinbjörnsson highlighted the striking agreement between the latest forecast charts, saying both show a 942 hPa deep low and closely resemble each other. He compared these outputs to earlier charts and noted repeated signals that a similar system could form about a week in advance.

However, Einar Sveinbjörnsson cautioned that it remains too early to predict what impacts the potential low might have on Iceland or to issue advice on preparedness. He stated that the forecast is not yet detailed enough to assess likely wind, precipitation, or coastal effects, and more information is needed before drawing firm conclusions. Specific confidence levels from the ECMWF and AIFS models have not yet been published.

Last week’s low pressure system, which passed over Iceland with a central pressure of 934 hPa, set a new record for October. Should the new system develop as charted, it would be among the deepest seen, but would likely not break this recent record.

Background: Reykjanes and Icelandic weather monitoring

The Reykjanes peninsula in southwest Iceland is marked by extensive lava fields and active volcanism. It is home to Keflavík International Airport and the Blue Lagoon. Since 2021, the region has experienced repeated volcanic eruptions. Monitoring and forecasting severe weather and volcanic hazards in Iceland is carried out by the Icelandic Met Office, a government agency responsible for both meteorology and civil protection. The Met Office has managed weather prediction services in Iceland since 1920 and also operates systems for the Danish Meteorological Institute.

TopicsAIFSdeep lowECMWFIcelandReykjanesweather forecasting